Viewing archive of Thursday, 24 January 2019

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2019 Jan 24 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 24 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Jan 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (25 Jan, 26 Jan, 27 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 666 km/s at 24/1339Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 24/0151Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 23/2110Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (25 Jan), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (26 Jan) and quiet levels on day three (27 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 25 Jan to 27 Jan
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       24 Jan 072
  Predicted   25 Jan-27 Jan 072/072/072
  90 Day Mean        24 Jan 070

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 23 Jan  010/008
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 24 Jan  017/024
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 25 Jan-27 Jan  013/018-009/010-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Jan to 27 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%20%10%
Minor storm15%05%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%15%15%
Minor storm25%25%20%
Major-severe storm50%30%20%

All times in UTC

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