Viewing archive of Tuesday, 22 January 2019

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2019 Jan 22 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 22 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Jan 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on day one (23 Jan) and expected to be very low on days two and three (24 Jan, 25 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 358 km/s at 22/1617Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 22/1424Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 22/1646Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (23 Jan), unsettled to minor storm levels on day two (24 Jan) and unsettled to active levels on day three (25 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 23 Jan to 25 Jan
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       22 Jan 071
  Predicted   23 Jan-25 Jan 072/072/072
  90 Day Mean        22 Jan 070

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 21 Jan  002/003
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 22 Jan  004/004
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 23 Jan-25 Jan  013/018-019/024-013/018

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Jan to 25 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%40%35%
Minor storm20%25%15%
Major-severe storm01%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm25%25%25%
Major-severe storm60%60%50%

All times in UTC

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