Viewing archive of Tuesday, 19 February 2019

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2019 Feb 19 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 50 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Feb 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (20 Feb, 21 Feb, 22 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 367 km/s at 18/2120Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 281 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (20 Feb, 21 Feb) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (22 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 20 Feb to 22 Feb
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       19 Feb 070
  Predicted   20 Feb-22 Feb 070/070/070
  90 Day Mean        19 Feb 071

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 18 Feb  005/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 19 Feb  003/003
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 20 Feb-22 Feb  009/012-015/016-010/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Feb to 22 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%30%15%
Minor storm10%15%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%20%
Minor storm25%30%25%
Major-severe storm35%40%20%

All times in UTC

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