Viewing archive of Wednesday, 30 December 2015

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Dec 30 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 364 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Dec 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 30/1905Z from Region 2473 (S21W47). There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (31 Dec, 01 Jan, 02 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 398 km/s at 30/0038Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 30/1819Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 29/2106Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1656 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to severe storm levels on day one (31 Dec), unsettled to minor storm levels on day two (01 Jan) and unsettled to active levels on day three (02 Jan). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (31 Dec, 01 Jan, 02 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 31 Dec to 02 Jan
Class M40%30%25%
Class X05%01%01%
Proton15%15%15%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       30 Dec 102
  Predicted   31 Dec-02 Jan 100/105/105
  90 Day Mean        30 Dec 109

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 29 Dec  004/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 30 Dec  008/017
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 31 Dec-02 Jan  028/046-020/024-015/018

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Dec to 02 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%45%40%
Minor storm35%25%20%
Major-severe storm50%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active01%05%10%
Minor storm10%25%25%
Major-severe storm90%65%60%

All times in UTC

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