Viewing archive of Tuesday, 26 January 2016

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2016 Jan 26 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 26 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Jan 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 26/1715Z. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day one (27 Jan) and likely to be low on days two and three (28 Jan, 29 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 406 km/s at 26/0014Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 26/1718Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at 26/1142Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2117 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (27 Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (28 Jan, 29 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 27 Jan to 29 Jan
Class M10%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       26 Jan 115
  Predicted   27 Jan-29 Jan 112/112/110
  90 Day Mean        26 Jan 109

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 25 Jan  003/002
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 26 Jan  004/004
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 27 Jan-29 Jan  010/012-009/010-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Jan to 29 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%15%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%20%20%
Minor storm30%20%25%
Major-severe storm30%20%20%

All times in UTC

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