Viewing archive of Thursday, 3 December 2015

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Dec 03 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 337 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Dec 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 03/0628Z from Region 2458 (N09W79). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (04 Dec, 05 Dec, 06 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 466 km/s at 03/0255Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 03/1805Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 03/0154Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1537 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (04 Dec, 05 Dec) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (06 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 04 Dec to 06 Dec
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       03 Dec 095
  Predicted   04 Dec-06 Dec 095/090/090
  90 Day Mean        03 Dec 106

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 02 Dec  007/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 03 Dec  005/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 04 Dec-06 Dec  007/008-007/008-014/018

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Dec to 06 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%35%
Minor storm05%05%15%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%15%
Minor storm30%25%30%
Major-severe storm20%20%45%

All times in UTC

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