Viewing archive of Tuesday, 29 December 2015

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Dec 29 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 363 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Dec 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at 29/1032Z from Region 2473 (S21W33). There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (30 Dec, 31 Dec, 01 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 426 km/s at 29/0217Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 28/2334Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 29/2023Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3 pfu at 29/0150Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2442 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to severe storm levels on day one (30 Dec), unsettled to minor storm levels on day two (31 Dec) and quiet to active levels on day three (01 Jan). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (30 Dec, 31 Dec, 01 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 30 Dec to 01 Jan
Class M50%50%50%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton15%15%15%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       29 Dec 105
  Predicted   30 Dec-01 Jan 105/105/110
  90 Day Mean        29 Dec 109

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 28 Dec  003/002
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 29 Dec  006/006
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 30 Dec-01 Jan  018/040-022/028-012/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Dec to 01 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%45%30%
Minor storm35%30%15%
Major-severe storm50%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active01%05%15%
Minor storm10%20%30%
Major-severe storm90%70%45%

All times in UTC

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