Viewing archive of Thursday, 31 December 2015

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Dec 31 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 365 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Dec 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at 30/2245Z from Region 2473 (S21W60). There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one and two (01 Jan, 02 Jan) and expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on day three (03 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 575 km/s at 31/0537Z. Total IMF reached 17 nT at 31/1909Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -16 nT at 31/1915Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 883 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to major storm levels on day one (01 Jan) and unsettled to active levels on days two and three (02 Jan, 03 Jan). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one and two (01 Jan, 02 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 01 Jan to 03 Jan
Class M20%20%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton10%10%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       31 Dec 096
  Predicted   01 Jan-03 Jan 095/100/100
  90 Day Mean        31 Dec 109

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 30 Dec  002/002
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 31 Dec  026/041
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 01 Jan-03 Jan  021/030-015/018-015/018

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Jan to 03 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%30%30%
Minor storm35%15%15%
Major-severe storm20%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active05%15%15%
Minor storm20%30%30%
Major-severe storm75%45%45%

All times in UTC

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