Viewing archive of Thursday, 22 November 2012

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Nov 22 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 327 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Nov 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 21/2116Z from Region 1618 (N08W13). Although this region retains weak beta-gamma-delta magnetic characteristics, it has experienced intermediate penumbral decay. All other regions on the disk remain fairly stable. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels on days one, two, and three (23 Nov, 24 Nov, 25 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 417 km/s at 21/2303Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1200 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to begin the forecast period at mostly quiet levels until the arrival of the 20 Nov CME midday on day one (23 Nov) when conditions are expected to rise to active levels with a chance for minor storm periods. Conditions have a chance for reaching major storm levels early on day two (24 Nov) with the expected arrival of the 21 Nov CME. On day three (25 Nov) conditions are expected to return to unsettled to active levels due to CME combined with high speed stream effects.
III. Event Probabilities 23 Nov to 25 Nov
Class M10%10%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       22 Nov 128
  Predicted   23 Nov-25 Nov 125/120/115
  90 Day Mean        22 Nov 122

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 21 Nov  007/008
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 22 Nov  002/002
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 23 Nov-25 Nov  015/020-021/030-013/018

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Nov to 25 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%35%30%
Minor storm20%30%15%
Major-severe storm05%10%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%10%15%
Minor storm25%20%30%
Major-severe storm60%65%50%

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