Viewing archive of Wednesday, 21 November 2012

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Nov 21 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 326 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Nov 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was an M3 event at 21/1530Z from Region 1618 (N09E01) associated with Type IV and II radio sweeps (estimated velocity of 1918 km/s), a 200 sfu Tenflare, and a CME. More imagery is needed to determine the trajectory, however, it is expected to be Earth-directed due to the location of the region. Region 1618 also produced an M1/1n flare at 21/0656Z associated with Type IV and II radio sweeps (estimated velocity of 720 km/s) and a CME. This CME appears to have a slight Earthward component but the majority of ejecta is directed Eastward as visible on imagery. Region 1618 developed into a beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration. A filament eruption occurred between 20/2305Z to 21/0200Z at around N27E17 with a 14 degree heliographic extent. This filament eruption does not appear to have a CME associated with it. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at moderate with a chance for high levels on days one, two, and three (22 Nov, 23 Nov, 24 Nov). Region 1618 is expected to produce M-class flares. A chance for an isolated X-class flare exists for this region.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 488 km/s at 21/0307Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 20/2228Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6.4 nT at 20/2350Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 857 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (22 Nov). On day two (23 Nov) conditions are expected to increase to unsettled to minor storm levels with a chance for major storm levels due to the arrival of 21 and 22 Nov CMEs. Conditions are expected to decrease to unsettled to active with a chance for minor storm levels on day three (24 Nov) with CME effects combined with a favorably positioned coronal hole. A chance for a proton event exists on days one, two, and three (22 Nov, 23 Nov, 24 Nov) due to a chance of high solar flare activity and a favorable position of Region 1618.
III. Event Probabilities 22 Nov to 24 Nov
Class M70%70%70%
Class X30%30%30%
Proton30%30%30%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       21 Nov 140
  Predicted   22 Nov-24 Nov 140/135/135
  90 Day Mean        21 Nov 122

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 20 Nov  010/013
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 21 Nov  007/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 22 Nov-24 Nov  010/012-023/030-014/020

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Nov to 24 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%35%40%
Minor storm05%30%20%
Major-severe storm01%10%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%10%10%
Minor storm30%20%25%
Major-severe storm25%65%60%

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