Viewing archive of Tuesday, 20 November 2012

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Nov 20 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 325 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Nov 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event, with an associated Earth-directed CME (estimated velocity of 664 km/s), observed at 20/1241Z. There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. Region 1618 (N08E14) has retained its beta-gamma magnetic complexity. New Region 1620 (S08E59) was numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at moderate levels on days one, two, and three (21 Nov, 22 Nov, 23 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 461 km/s at 20/1958Z. Total IMF reached 7.8 nT at 19/2347Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7.2 nT at 20/1725Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1277 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet levels for the next three days (21 Nov, 22 Nov, 23 Nov). Protons have a slight chance to cross alert threshold on days one, two, and three (21 Nov, 22 Nov, 23 Nov) due to expected solar flare activity from Region 1618. Further analysis is needed to determine the geoeffectiveness of todays CME.
III. Event Probabilities 21 Nov to 23 Nov
Class M70%70%70%
Class X15%15%15%
Proton15%15%15%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       20 Nov 141
  Predicted   21 Nov-23 Nov 140/135/135
  90 Day Mean        20 Nov 122

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 19 Nov  003/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 20 Nov  009/012
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 21 Nov-23 Nov  006/005-006/005-007/009

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Nov to 23 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%05%10%
Minor storm01%01%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm10%10%20%
Major-severe storm05%05%20%

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