Viewing archive of Monday, 19 November 2012
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Nov 19 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 324 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Nov 2012IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C7 event observed at
19/0228Z from Region 1618 (N09E28). Region 1618 has a beta-gamma
magnetic configuration. There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions
on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low to
moderate levels on days one, two, and three (20 Nov, 21 Nov, 22 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 433 km/s at
19/0114Z. Total IMF reached 6.2 nT at 19/2058Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -4.9 nT at 19/0848Z. Electrons greater than 2
MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1465 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels for the next three days (20 Nov, 21 Nov, 22 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 20 Nov to 22 Nov
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Nov 134 Predicted 20 Nov-22 Nov 135/135/135 90 Day Mean 19 Nov 121
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Nov 004/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Nov 004/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Nov-22 Nov 006/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Nov to 22 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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