Viewing archive of Friday, 26 October 2012

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Oct 26 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 300 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Oct 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z

Solar activity has been low. Region 1598 (S12E04), a Dko/Beta-Delta spot group, remained the most magnetically complex region, yet only produced a C1/Sf flare at 26/1607Z. The most active region was an area of enhanced plage near S27W87, formerly Region 1594, where three low-level C-class flares originated. Region 1596 (N08W35) showed signs of umbral separation, and new Region 1600 (N09W14) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for M-class flares for the next three days (27-29 October).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, remained relatively steady at 350 km/s. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field remained mostly positive, with minor deflections of +/-4 nT, while the total field held steady at 4 nT. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet for the next three days (27-29 October).
III. Event Probabilities 27 Oct to 29 Oct
Class M20%15%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       26 Oct 131
  Predicted   27 Oct-29 Oct  135/130/115
  90 Day Mean        26 Oct 122
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 25 Oct  003/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 26 Oct  003/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 27 Oct-29 Oct  006/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Oct to 29 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%05%05%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

All times in UTC

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