Viewing archive of Friday, 23 November 2012

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Nov 23 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 328 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Nov 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 23/1212Z from Region 1618 (N08W27). Although this region retained its beta-gamma-delta magnetic characteristics, it experienced intermediate penumbral decay. All other regions on the disk remained stable and quiet. Between 1200 and 1300Z, a 29 degree filament was observed in SDO AIA 304 imagery lifting off from the southeast limb. The subsequent CME was observed in STEREO-A and B COR2 imagery beginning around 1400Z. Using geometric localization, a preliminary speed of approximately 550 km/s was obtained. This suggests an arrival at earth early on 27 November.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels, with a slight chance for moderate activity, for the entire forecast period (24-26 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed at the ACE spacecraft reached 389km/s at 23/2117Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 23/2116Z. The maximum southward component of Bz was -8.8 nT at 23/2112Z. These values coincided with the arrival of an interplanetary shock at ACE around 23/2112Z from the 20 Nov CME. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached a maximum of 1408 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to begin at active levels and reach major storm levels early on day one (24 Nov) with the effects from the 20 Nov CME coupled with the anticipated arrival of the 21 Nov CME. On day two (25 Nov), conditions are expected to return to unsettled to active levels due to residual CME effects combined with a coronal hole high speed stream. The unsettled levels may persist into day three (26 November).
III. Event Probabilities 24 Nov to 26 Nov
Class M20%20%20%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       23 Nov 126
  Predicted   24 Nov-26 Nov 125/120/115
  90 Day Mean        23 Nov 123

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 22 Nov  001/001
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 23 Nov  005/007
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 24 Nov-26 Nov  023/090-013/018-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Nov to 26 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%30%05%
Minor storm30%15%01%
Major-severe storm10%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%15%15%
Minor storm20%30%10%
Major-severe storm65%50%05%

All times in UTC

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