Viewing archive of Saturday, 24 November 2012

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Nov 24 2300 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 329 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Nov 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C3/1n event observed at 24/1340Z from Region 1618 (N08W41) accompanied by a Type II radio sweep (685 km/s). No coronagraph imagery was available for analysis at the time of this report. Region 1618 showed signs of decay during the period, but retained weak beta-gamma-delta characteristics. New Region 1621 (N15E76) was numbered today and is currently a simple Hsx type with alpha magnetic characteristics. The remaining 3 regions were stable. Other than the potential CME associated with the Type II sweep noted above, no earth-directed CMEs were detected.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels on days one, two, and three (25 Nov, 26 Nov, 27 Nov) with a diminishing chance for an isolated M-flare from Region 1618 as it continues to decay.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. The maximum solar wind speed at the ACE spacecraft was 439 km/s at 24/1137Z. Total IMF reached 17.1 nT at 23/2216Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10.3 nT at 24/0621Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 789 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to range from quiet to minor storm levels over the next three days (25 Nov, 26 Nov, 27 Nov). The 21 November CME is expected to become geoeffective late on 24 or early on 25 November. Unsettled to active periods with an isolated minor storm period are expected on day 1 (25 November). Conditions are expected to return to quiet to unsettled levels on day 2 (26 November). The 23 November CME is expected to arrive on day 3 (27 November), bringing unsettled to active conditions with a slight chance for an isolated minor storm period, particularly at high latitudes.
III. Event Probabilities 25 Nov to 27 Nov
Class M30%30%30%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       24 Nov 118
  Predicted   25 Nov-27 Nov 120/115/110
  90 Day Mean        24 Nov 123

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 23 Nov  006/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 24 Nov  013/015
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 25 Nov-27 Nov  015/018-008/005-013/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Nov to 27 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%10%25%
Minor storm15%05%10%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm30%15%25%
Major-severe storm50%15%35%

All times in UTC

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