Viewing archive of Sunday, 28 October 2012

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Oct 28 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 302 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Oct 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z

Solar activity was low. The only C class event, a long duration C1 flare was observed at 28/0805Z. An active region around the west limb appears to have been the source of the event and LASCO C2/C3 indicate an associated CME occurred. Analysis of the CME via LASCO and STEREO indicate that the transient should not affect Earth. However, further analysis of the CME noted in the forecast yesterday has determined that there were two separate events, both from filament eruptions, and both with Earthward trajectories. A new, but unnumbered region, is beginning to rotate around the Southeast limb of the disk. All regions currently on the disk were unchanged or in decay.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low for days one through three (29-31 October).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on days one and two (29-30 October). Quiet conditions are expected again on day three (31 October) until the possible arrival of the CMEs from 27/28 October late in the period, when an active period is expected at CME onset.
III. Event Probabilities 29 Oct to 31 Oct
Class M15%15%15%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       28 Oct 117
  Predicted   29 Oct-31 Oct  115/115/110
  90 Day Mean        28 Oct 121
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 27 Oct  003/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 28 Oct  003/004
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 29 Oct-31 Oct  006/005-006/005-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Oct to 31 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%05%25%
Minor storm01%01%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%10%
Minor storm10%10%20%
Major-severe storm05%05%35%

All times in UTC

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