Viewing archive of Sunday, 28 October 2012
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Oct 28 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 302 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Oct 2012IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z Solar activity was low. The only C class event, a long
duration C1 flare was observed at 28/0805Z. An active region around
the west limb appears to have been the source of the event and LASCO
C2/C3 indicate an associated CME occurred. Analysis of the CME via
LASCO and STEREO indicate that the transient should not affect
Earth. However, further analysis of the CME noted in the forecast
yesterday has determined that there were two separate events, both
from filament eruptions, and both with Earthward trajectories. A
new, but unnumbered region, is beginning to rotate around the
Southeast limb of the disk. All regions currently on the disk were
unchanged or in decay.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
for days one through three (29-31 October).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet on days one and two (29-30 October). Quiet
conditions are expected again on day three (31 October) until the
possible arrival of the CMEs from 27/28 October late in the period,
when an active period is expected at CME onset.
III. Event Probabilities 29 Oct to 31 Oct
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Oct 117 Predicted 29 Oct-31 Oct 115/115/110 90 Day Mean 28 Oct 121
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Oct 003/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Oct 003/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Oct-31 Oct 006/005-006/005-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Oct to 31 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 35% |
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