Viewing archive of Monday, 29 October 2012
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Oct 29 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 303 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Oct 2012IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z Solar activity was very low. The largest and only
event of the period was a B6 flare at 29/0302Z from Region 1596
(N05W79). Regions 1601 (S10E11) and 1602 (S17E65) were numbered
today. No Earth-directed CMEs were detected during the reporting
period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
with a slight chance for M-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet on day 1 (30 October). Quiet conditions are
expected again on day 2 (31 October) until the arrival of the CMEs
from 27/28 October, when there is a chance for active conditions
late in the period. Active conditions are again likely with a
chance for minor storm conditions on day 3 (01 November).
III. Event Probabilities 30 Oct to 01 Nov
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Oct 108 Predicted 30 Oct-01 Nov 110/110/110 90 Day Mean 29 Oct 121
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Oct 003/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Oct 003/003 Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Oct-01 Nov 006/005-010/012-016/022
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Oct to 01 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 25% | 45% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 10% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 20% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 35% | 60% |
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