Viewing archive of Tuesday, 30 October 2012
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Oct 30 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 304 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Oct 2012IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Region 1598 (S11W51)
produced a B8 flare at 0137Z. A filament eruption occurred from
0640Z to 0855Z near S32E07 with a heliographic extent of 24 degrees.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a chance for low level activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet on day 1 (31 October), increasing to a
chance for active levels with the arrival of the 27 and 28 October
CMEs late in the day. Unsettled to active with a chance for minor
storm levels are expected on day 2 (1 November) from CME effects.
On day 3 (2 November) conditions are expected to decline to quiet to
unsettled with a chance for active as CME effects subside.
III. Event Probabilities 31 Oct to 02 Nov
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Oct 106 Predicted 31 Oct-02 Nov 105/100/095 90 Day Mean 30 Oct 121
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Oct 002/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Oct 002/003 Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Oct-02 Nov 010/012-015/020-007/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Oct to 02 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 45% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 35% | 60% | 25% |
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