Viewing archive of Monday, 26 November 2012

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Nov 26 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 331 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Nov 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 26/1526Z from Region 1620 (S13W28). The region grew significantly overnight and is now considered an Esi-type region with a beta-gamma magnetic configuration. Region 1618 (N08W69) continued to decay, however, it maintained a weak delta in its trailing spot. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. A filament eruption was observed south of Region 1620 in SDO/AIA 304 imagery beginning at 26/0343Z. A model run is in progress to determine geoeffectiveness.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels on days one, two, and three (27 Nov, 28 Nov, 29 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. A shock passage was observed at 26/0437Z indicating the possible early arrival of the 23 November CME followed by an 8 nT Sudden Impulse (SI) observed at the Boulder magnetometer at 26/0514Z. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 558 km/s at 26/0709Z. Total IMF reached 12.8 nT at 26/0749Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7.8 nT at 26/0729Z although it has remained positive since about 26/1000Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with a chance for isolated active periods on day one (27 Nov) as CME effects begin to wane. Mostly quiet conditions are expected on days two and three (28 Nov, 29 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 27 Nov to 29 Nov
Class M35%35%35%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       26 Nov 122
  Predicted   27 Nov-29 Nov 120/120/115
  90 Day Mean        26 Nov 123

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 25 Nov  004/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 26 Nov  005/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 27 Nov-29 Nov  011/012-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Nov to 29 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%10%05%
Minor storm10%05%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm25%15%10%
Major-severe storm35%15%05%

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