Viewing archive of Wednesday, 19 December 2012

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Dec 19 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 354 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Dec 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels on days one, two, and three (20 Dec, 21 Dec, 22 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed around 500 km/s. Total IMF reached 5.3 nT at 19/1125Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3.4 nT at 19/0811Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 481 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels for the next three days (20 Dec, 21 Dec, 22 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 20 Dec to 22 Dec
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       19 Dec 113
  Predicted   20 Dec-22 Dec 110/110/110
  90 Day Mean        19 Dec 120

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 18 Dec  005/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 19 Dec  004/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 20 Dec-22 Dec  006/005-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Dec to 22 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%05%05%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

All times in UTC

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