Viewing archive of Tuesday, 15 January 2013

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Jan 15 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 15 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Jan 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 15/0556Z from Region 1654 (N07W19). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with a chance of moderate levels on days one, two, and three (16 Jan, 17 Jan, 18 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 564 km/s at 14/2105Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 520 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominately quiet levels for day one (16 Jan) and unsettled to active levels on day two (17 Jan) due to the arrival of the CME from 13 Jan. On day three (18 Jan), the geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled levels with a chance of active periods.
III. Event Probabilities 16 Jan to 18 Jan
Class M45%45%40%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       15 Jan 140
  Predicted   16 Jan-18 Jan 135/130/125
  90 Day Mean        15 Jan 123

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 14 Jan  006/007
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 15 Jan  004/004
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 16 Jan-18 Jan  006/005-010/012-007/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Jan to 18 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%35%25%
Minor storm01%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm10%30%30%
Major-severe storm05%45%30%

All times in UTC

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