Viewing archive of Tuesday, 15 January 2013
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Jan 15 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 15 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Jan 2013IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
15/0556Z from Region 1654 (N07W19). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low
levels with a chance of moderate levels on days one, two, and three (16
Jan, 17 Jan, 18 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 564 km/s at
14/2105Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 520 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at predominately quiet levels for day one (16 Jan) and unsettled
to active levels on day two (17 Jan) due to the arrival of the CME from
13 Jan. On day three (18 Jan), the geomagnetic field is expected to be
at unsettled levels with a chance of active periods.
III. Event Probabilities 16 Jan to 18 Jan
| Class M | 45% | 45% | 40% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Jan 140 Predicted 16 Jan-18 Jan 135/130/125 90 Day Mean 15 Jan 123
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Jan 006/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Jan 004/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Jan-18 Jan 006/005-010/012-007/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Jan to 18 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 35% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 45% | 30% |
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