Viewing archive of Monday, 14 January 2013

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Jan 14 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 14 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Jan 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at 14/0122Z from Region 1652 (N18W64). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low levels with moderate levels likely on days one, two, and three (15 Jan, 16 Jan, 17 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 593 km/s at 14/0352Z. Total IMF reached 8.6 nT at 13/2316Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6.8 nT at 14/0015Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 109 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels for days one and two (15-16 Jan) and unsettled levels on day three (17 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 15 Jan to 17 Jan
Class M60%60%60%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       14 Jan 154
  Predicted   15 Jan-17 Jan 150/145/140
  90 Day Mean        14 Jan 123

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 13 Jan  010/009
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 14 Jan  008/009
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 15 Jan-17 Jan  006/005-006/005-009/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Jan to 17 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%05%25%
Minor storm01%01%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm10%10%30%
Major-severe storm05%05%35%

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