Viewing archive of Tuesday, 10 January 2012
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Jan 10 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 010 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Jan 2012IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 1393 (N17W70) produced
the largest flare; a C1 at 10/0153Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
with a chance for an isolated M-flare from Regions 1391 (N12W25) and
1393.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. Solar wind speed at the ACE
spacecraft continues to be slightly elevated at approximately 420 -
460 km/s with the IMF Bz not varying much beyond +/- 5 nT.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet on day 1 (11 January). On days 2 - 3
(12 - 13 January) quiet to unsettled conditions are expected with a
chance for active periods as a coronal hole high speed stream is
expected to become geoeffective.
III. Event Probabilities 11 Jan to 13 Jan
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Jan 129 Predicted 11 Jan-13 Jan 130/125/120 90 Day Mean 10 Jan 145
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Jan 007/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Jan 003/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Jan-13 Jan 004/005-007/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Jan to 13 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 20% | 20% |
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