Viewing archive of Monday, 6 February 2012
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Feb 06 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 037 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Feb 2012IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. Region 1410 (N17W67)
produced an M1 x-ray flare at 06/2000Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low
with a chance for moderate levels from Region 1410 for days 1 and 2
(7-8 February). Very low to low level are expected on day 3 (9
February) after Region 1410 transits off the west limb of the solar
disk.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet for days 1-2 (7-8 February). Activity
should increase to unsettled and active levels late on day 3 (9
February) from the onset of coronal hole high speed stream effects.
III. Event Probabilities 07 Feb to 09 Feb
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Feb 112 Predicted 07 Feb-09 Feb 110/110/100 90 Day Mean 06 Feb 138
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Feb 006/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Feb 005/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Feb-09 Feb 004/005-004/005-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Feb to 09 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
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