Viewing archive of Sunday, 5 February 2012
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Feb 05 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 036 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Feb 2012IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z Solar activity was at very low levels. The disk and
limb was quiet and stable with no Earth-directed CMEs detected.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a chance for C-class activity for the next three days (06 -
08 February).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels with an
isolated high latitude active period. ACE satellite wind speeds
were steady between 400 to 450 km/s while the Bz component of the
interplanetary magnetic field did not vary beyond +/- 4 nT.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at mostly quiet levels for the next three days (06 -
08 February).
III. Event Probabilities 06 Feb to 08 Feb
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Feb 103 Predicted 06 Feb-08 Feb 105/105/105 90 Day Mean 05 Feb 139
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Feb 007/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Feb 006/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Feb-08 Feb 004/005-004/005-004/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Feb to 08 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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