Viewing archive of Monday, 9 January 2012
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Jan 09 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 009 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Jan 2012IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z Solar activity was low. Regions 1391 (N12W12), 1393
(N15W57), and 1395 (N22E45) produced low level C-class flares.
Possible umbral separation was observed in the leading spot of
Region 1391 and the trailing spot of Region 1393. Both regions have
Beta-Gamma magnetic classifications.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue
at low levels with a chance for M-class activity from Regions 1391
and 1393.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet. Solar wind speed at the ACE
spacecraft continues to be slightly elevated around 420 - 440 km/s
with the IMF Bz not varying much beyond +/- 5 nT.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet on days 1 - 2 (10 - 11 January). A
coronal hole high speed stream is expected to move into geoeffective
position on day 3 (12 January) causing quiet to unsettled conditions
with a chance for active periods.
III. Event Probabilities 10 Jan to 12 Jan
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Jan 142 Predicted 10 Jan-12 Jan 140/140/135 90 Day Mean 09 Jan 145
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Jan 005/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Jan 007/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Jan-12 Jan 004/005-004/005-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Jan to 12 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 20% |
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