Viewing archive of Sunday, 8 January 2012
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Jan 08 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 008 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Jan 2012IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24
hours. Region 1393 (N16W45) continues to grow in both areal coverage
and magnetic complexity. The largest event of the period was a C4
x-ray event from around the east limb. A non Earth directed CME was
observed in LASCO C2 and C3 imagery around 08/0212Z. Region 1395
(N22E59) was numbered early in the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels for the next three days (09-11 January).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind characteristics, as measured by the ACE spacecraft,
indicate the continuing effects of a weak coronal hole high-speed
stream.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain at mostly quiet levels for the next three days
(09-11 January).
III. Event Probabilities 09 Jan to 11 Jan
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Jan 136 Predicted 09 Jan-11 Jan 135/135/135 90 Day Mean 08 Jan 145
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Jan 005/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Jan 004/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Jan-11 Jan 004/005-004/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Jan to 11 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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