Viewing archive of Saturday, 7 January 2012
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Jan 07 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 007 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Jan 2012IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24
hours. The largest event of the period was a C2/Sf at 07/0007Z from
Region 1392 (S24W73). Region 1392 and 1393 (N16W30) both showed
growth in areal coverage and magnetic complexity. A CME was observed
in LASCO C2 imagery around 06/2125Z. After analysis,
this CME appears to a farsided event, thus not Earth directed.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels for the next three days (08-10 January).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at mostly quiet levels for the past 24
hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain at predominantly quiet levels for the next three
days (08-10 January).
III. Event Probabilities 08 Jan to 10 Jan
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Jan 141 Predicted 08 Jan-10 Jan 135/135/135 90 Day Mean 07 Jan 145
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Jan 006/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Jan 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Jan-10 Jan 005/005-005/005-004/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Jan to 10 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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