Viewing archive of Monday, 12 December 2011
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Dec 12 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 346 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Dec 2011IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z Solar activity was low. Todays largest event was a
C1/Sf at 0837Z from Region 1374 (S17E15). Region 1374 is currently
the largest group on the disk with an area around 150 millionths and
there is evidence for a small magnetic delta configuration in the
south part of the leading spot complex. The other regions on the
disk were quiet and stable. SDO imagery shows one or possibly two
new groups just rotating into view near the east limb.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
for the next three days (13-15 December).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet for the next three days (13-15 December).
III. Event Probabilities 13 Dec to 15 Dec
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Dec 132 Predicted 13 Dec-15 Dec 135/135/135 90 Day Mean 12 Dec 146
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Dec 005/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Dec 002/003 Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Dec-15 Dec 006/006-006/006-006/006
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Dec to 15 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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