Viewing archive of Sunday, 4 March 2012

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Mar 04 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 064 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Mar 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate. A long duration M2/1N flare was observed at 04/1052Z from Region 1429 (N18E55). Associated with the event was a 750 sfu Tenflare, Type IV Radio Sweep, and a CME first visible in STEREO B COR 2 Imagery at 04/1210Z (estimated speed of 840 km/s). This region is classified as a Dkc spot group with a Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic configuration. Further analysis of the CME will be necessary as imagery becomes available, however there appears to be a partial Earth-directed component. A glancing blow is possible from this event.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels with a slight chance for an X-class flare from Region 1429.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active conditions with an isolated major storm period observed at high latitudes between 04/0900 - 1200Z. Activity was due to extended periods of the negative Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field near -5 nT. The solar wind speed at the ACE spacecraft was relatively steady near 380 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet on day 1 (05 March). Activity levels are expected to increase on day 2 (06 March) due to a possible glancing blow from todays CME associated with the M2/1N flare. Unsettled to active conditions are expected with isolated minor storm periods possible. Conditions are expected to settle down to mostly quiet to unsettled conditions by day 3 (07 March) as the effects of the CME wane. There is a slight chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton event from Region 1429 for the forecast period.
III. Event Probabilities 05 Mar to 07 Mar
Class M60%60%60%
Class X15%15%15%
Proton15%15%15%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       04 Mar 120
  Predicted   05 Mar-07 Mar  120/120/115
  90 Day Mean        04 Mar 125
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 03 Mar  008/009
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 04 Mar  012/012
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 05 Mar-07 Mar  006/005-012/015-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Mar to 07 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%30%15%
Minor storm01%15%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%35%20%
Minor storm10%25%15%
Major-severe storm01%15%10%

All times in UTC

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