Viewing archive of Wednesday, 14 December 2011
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Dec 14 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 348 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Dec 2011IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z Solar activity was low. There were numerous C-class
events during the past 24 hours; the largest was a C7 at 1459Z from
Region 1367 (S18, beyond west limb). GOES SXI imagery showed that
Region 1367 was responsible for the other C-class events during the
period as well. Region 1374 (S18W11) continues to be the largest
group on the disk but was stable and quiet. New Region 1377 (N11E43)
was assigned and appears to be a small, D-type sunspot region. A
coronal mass ejection was noted from the west limb at about
14/0412Z; disk imagery indicate the source region was near the limb
and the CME is not expected to be geoeffective.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
for the next three days (15-17 December).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet tomorrow (15 December) but there is a
possibility for some brief unsettled periods due to a glancing blow
from the CME/DSF that occurred on 11 December. Quiet levels are
expected to prevail for 16-17 December.
III. Event Probabilities 15 Dec to 17 Dec
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Dec 132 Predicted 15 Dec-17 Dec 130/128/126 90 Day Mean 14 Dec 146
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Dec 005/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Dec 002/003 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Dec-17 Dec 007/008-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Dec to 17 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
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