Viewing archive of Thursday, 17 November 2011
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Nov 17 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 321 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Nov 2011IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z Solar activity for the period was low. Region 1346
(S18W03) produced a C6/Sf flare at 17/0727Z with an associated Type
II radio sweep.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
during the period (18 - 20 November) with a slight chance for
isolated M-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels throughout the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at mostly quiet to unsettled levels for day one and
two (18 - 19 November) in response to a possible glancing blow from
the coronal mass ejection observed late on 14 November. On day
three (20 November) the geomagnetic field is expected to return to
quiet levels.
III. Event Probabilities 18 Nov to 20 Nov
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Nov 148 Predicted 18 Nov-20 Nov 150/150/155 90 Day Mean 17 Nov 137
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Nov 003/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Nov 002/003 Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Nov-20 Nov 007/007-007/008-004/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Nov to 20 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 06% |
| Minor storm | 02% | 02% | 02% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 17% | 17% | 16% |
| Minor storm | 22% | 22% | 17% |
| Major-severe storm | 13% | 13% | 10% |
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