Viewing archive of Wednesday, 16 November 2011
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Nov 16 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 320 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Nov 2011IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z Solar activity was moderate due to an M-class flare
observed during the period. Region 1348 (N20,L088), which rotated
off of the west limb, produced an M1/1f at 15/2235Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
with a chance for isolated M-class activity through the period (17 -
19 November).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels throughout the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet on day one (17 November). By day two
and three (18 - 19 November), the field is expected to be at quiet
to unsettled levels with isolated active periods, in response to a
possible glancing blow from the coronal mass ejection observed late
on 14 November.
III. Event Probabilities 17 Nov to 19 Nov
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Nov 142 Predicted 17 Nov-19 Nov 145/150/150 90 Day Mean 16 Nov 136
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Nov 007/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Nov 004/003 Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Nov-19 Nov 005/005-007/007-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Nov to 19 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 06% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 02% | 02% | 02% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 16% | 17% | 17% |
| Minor storm | 17% | 22% | 22% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 13% | 13% |
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