Viewing archive of Wednesday, 11 January 2012
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Jan 11 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 011 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Jan 2012IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z Solar activity was low. Nominal C-class flares
occurred.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low with a chance for a M-class flare for the next 3 days
(12-14 January).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
forecast to be mostly quiet on day 1 (12 January). Conditions are
expected to increase for days 2-3 (13-14 January), with possible
unsettled and active conditions due to a high speed stream (HSS)
from a coronal hole (CH).
III. Event Probabilities 12 Jan to 14 Jan
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Jan 120 Predicted 12 Jan-14 Jan 120/120/120 90 Day Mean 11 Jan 145
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Jan 005/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Jan 000/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Jan-14 Jan 003/005-007/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Jan to 14 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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