Viewing archive of Wednesday, 2 November 2011
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Nov 02 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 306 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Nov 2011IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 1339 (N18E63) produced
occasional C-class flares, the largest of which was a C7/Sf at
02/1721Z. It rotated more fully into view as a Dkc/beta-gamma group.
No significant changes were observed in Region 1339, but analysis
was hampered by east limb proximity. No significant changes
occurred in the remaining regions.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
through the period (03 - 05 November) with a chance for an M-class
flare from Region 1339.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active levels with
minor to major storm periods detected at high latitudes due to
persistent effects from a coronal transient.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels through the period (03 -
05 November) with a chance for active levels on 05 November due to a
coronal hole high-speed stream. The CME mentioned in yesterdays
report is expected to arrive at Earth early on 04 November, but is
not expected to significantly disturb the field.
III. Event Probabilities 03 Nov to 05 Nov
| Class M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Nov 154 Predicted 03 Nov-05 Nov 160/165/165 90 Day Mean 02 Nov 125
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Nov 014/021 Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Nov 012/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Nov-05 Nov 007/008-008/010-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Nov to 05 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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