Viewing archive of Wednesday, 2 November 2011

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Nov 02 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 306 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Nov 2011

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Region 1339 (N18E63) produced occasional C-class flares, the largest of which was a C7/Sf at 02/1721Z. It rotated more fully into view as a Dkc/beta-gamma group. No significant changes were observed in Region 1339, but analysis was hampered by east limb proximity. No significant changes occurred in the remaining regions.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low through the period (03 - 05 November) with a chance for an M-class flare from Region 1339.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active levels with minor to major storm periods detected at high latitudes due to persistent effects from a coronal transient.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels through the period (03 - 05 November) with a chance for active levels on 05 November due to a coronal hole high-speed stream. The CME mentioned in yesterdays report is expected to arrive at Earth early on 04 November, but is not expected to significantly disturb the field.
III. Event Probabilities 03 Nov to 05 Nov
Class M50%50%50%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       02 Nov 154
  Predicted   03 Nov-05 Nov  160/165/165
  90 Day Mean        02 Nov 125
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 01 Nov  014/021
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 02 Nov  012/015
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 03 Nov-05 Nov  007/008-008/010-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Nov to 05 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%15%20%
Minor storm01%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%20%25%
Minor storm01%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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