Viewing archive of Tuesday, 1 November 2011

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Nov 01 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 305 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Nov 2011

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Newly numbered Region 1338 (S12E69) produced the largest flare of the period; a C5 flare at 31/2322Z. Another new region, responsible for M-class flare activity on 31 October, is currently rotating into view on the Northeast limb and was numbered Region 1339 (N22E71). A CME was observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery at 31/1700Z with the majority of the ejecta off the Northeast limb. The CME was associated with a disappearing solar filament (DSF) that was observed in SDO/AIA 193 imagery at 31/1426Z. STEREO B COR 2 imagery had a plane of sky speed of approximately 503 km/s. A glancing blow from this CME is possible early on 04 November.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Further M-class flares are likely from new Region 1339.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels with major and severe storm periods observed at high latitudes. At approximately 01/0817Z, a shock arrival was observed at the ACE spacecraft. Solar wind speed increased from approximately 370 km/s to 420 km/s while the total magnetic field (IMF Bt) increased from 5 to 15 nT. A sudden impulse (SI) of 18 nT was observed on the Boulder magnetometer at 01/0907Z. This event was possibly due to transient activity associated with a DSF on 28 October.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods possible on day 1 (02 November) due to continued activity from transient activity on 01 November. Mostly quiet conditions are expected on days 2 - 3 (03 - 04 November).
III. Event Probabilities 02 Nov to 04 Nov
Class M60%60%60%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       01 Nov 139
  Predicted   02 Nov-04 Nov  145/145/150
  90 Day Mean        01 Nov 125
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 31 Oct  009/008
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 01 Nov  015/027
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 02 Nov-04 Nov  008/010-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Nov to 04 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%05%05%
Minor storm05%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%05%05%
Minor storm05%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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