Viewing archive of Monday, 28 November 2011

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Nov 28 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 332 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Nov 2011

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z

Solar activity was low. The largest flare of the period was a C3 at 28/1830Z from Region 1361 (N18E21). Region 1361 had decay in its intermediate spots with slight growth in its trailer spot. Region 1362 (N07E60) has shown numerous smaller trailer spots since rotating further into view. An eruptive filament was first observed at 28/0534Z in SDO AIA 304 imagery near Region 1362. A CME, likely associated with this event, was seen shortly after in STEREO A COR2 imagery beginning at 28/0809Z. The ejecta was mostly directed off the west limb as observed in SOHO/LASCO imagery. This event is not expected to be geoeffective.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue at low levels with a slight chance for an M-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 10 MeV proton event above 10 PFUs began at 26/1125Z, reached a maximum flux of 80 PFUs at 27/0125Z, and ended at 28/0145Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active with a chance for minor storm periods on days 1-2 (29-30 November). Activity is due to a combination of a coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) and the coronal mass ejection (CME) from 26/0712Z. On day 3 (01 December) mostly quiet to unsettled conditions are expected.
III. Event Probabilities 29 Nov to 01 Dec
Class M10%10%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton10%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       28 Nov 138
  Predicted   29 Nov-01 Dec  140/145/145
  90 Day Mean        28 Nov 141
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 27 Nov  005/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 28 Nov  006/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 29 Nov-01 Dec  012/018-011/012-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Nov to 01 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active38%31%17%
Minor storm15%12%04%
Major-severe storm01%01%00%
B. High Latitudes
Active16%15%16%
Minor storm30%30%25%
Major-severe storm43%43%22%

All times in UTC

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