Viewing archive of Tuesday, 29 November 2011

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Nov 29 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 333 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Nov 2011

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Region 1361 (N18E07) and 1362 (N08E49) each produced the largest flares of the period; C2 flares at 29/0332Z and 29/0900Z respectively. A non-geoeffective CME was seen off the east limb in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery at 28/1800Z. This CME was likely associated with an eruption near Region 1362 seen in SDO/AIA 171 imagery beginning at 28/1655Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue at low levels with a slight chance for an isolated M-flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active with an isolated minor storm period observed at middle latitudes. At approximately 28/2115Z, increases in solar wind speed (380 - 515 km/s) and total magnetic field (5.8 - 13.5 nT) was observed at the ACE spacecraft. A 45 nT Sudden Impulse subsequently was observed in the Boulder magnetometer at 28/2154Z. Activity was due to the effects from the 26/0712Z CME.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on days 1-2 (30 November - 01 December). Mostly quiet conditions are expected on day 3 (02 December).
III. Event Probabilities 30 Nov to 02 Dec
Class M10%10%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       29 Nov 141
  Predicted   30 Nov-02 Dec  145/145/140
  90 Day Mean        29 Nov 142
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 28 Nov  007/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 29 Nov  007/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 30 Nov-02 Dec  008/008-008/007-005/006
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Nov to 02 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active08%08%05%
Minor storm02%02%01%
Major-severe storm00%00%00%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%15%
Minor storm16%16%12%
Major-severe storm11%11%05%

All times in UTC

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