Viewing archive of Tuesday, 29 November 2011
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Nov 29 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 333 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Nov 2011IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 1361 (N18E07) and 1362
(N08E49) each produced the largest flares of the period; C2 flares
at 29/0332Z and 29/0900Z respectively. A non-geoeffective CME was
seen off the east limb in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery at 28/1800Z. This
CME was likely associated with an eruption near Region 1362 seen in
SDO/AIA 171 imagery beginning at 28/1655Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue
at low levels with a slight chance for an isolated M-flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active with an isolated minor
storm period observed at middle latitudes. At approximately
28/2115Z, increases in solar wind speed (380 - 515 km/s) and total
magnetic field (5.8 - 13.5 nT) was observed at the ACE spacecraft.
A 45 nT Sudden Impulse subsequently was observed in the Boulder
magnetometer at 28/2154Z. Activity was due to the effects from the
26/0712Z CME.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on days 1-2 (30 November - 01
December). Mostly quiet conditions are expected on day 3 (02
December).
III. Event Probabilities 30 Nov to 02 Dec
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Nov 141 Predicted 30 Nov-02 Dec 145/145/140 90 Day Mean 29 Nov 142
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Nov 007/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Nov 007/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Nov-02 Dec 008/008-008/007-005/006
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Nov to 02 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 08% | 08% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 02% | 02% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 00% | 00% | 00% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 16% | 16% | 12% |
| Major-severe storm | 11% | 11% | 05% |
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