Viewing archive of Wednesday, 30 November 2011
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Nov 30 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 334 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Nov 2011IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z Solar activity was low. The largest event was a C3
flare that occurred at 30/2028Z from Region 1364 (S17E60). Growth
was observed in Regions 1361 (N18W06) and 1362 (N06E36). A coronal
mass ejection (CME) was observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery at
29/2312Z. The event was seen in STEREO B COR 2 imagery at 30/0110Z
and determined to be a farside event.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue
at low levels with a slight chance for an M-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic field reached quiet to active conditions with minor
and major storm periods observed at high latitudes. Activity was
attributed to a solar sector boundary crossing (SSBC) at
approximately 30/0810Z followed by a prolonged period of southward
Bz in the interplanetary magnetic field.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days (01-03
December). There is still a possibility of coronal hole high speed
stream effects from the southern polar extension coronal hole.
III. Event Probabilities 01 Dec to 03 Dec
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Nov 144 Predicted 01 Dec-03 Dec 145/140/135 90 Day Mean 30 Nov 142
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Nov 009/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Nov 008/009 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Dec-03 Dec 008/008-007/008-006/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Dec to 03 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 08% | 08% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 02% | 02% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 00% | 00% | 00% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 16% | 15% | 13% |
| Major-severe storm | 11% | 08% | 07% |
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