Viewing archive of Thursday, 1 December 2011
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Dec 01 2305 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
::::::::::CORRECTED COPY::::::::::: SDF Number 335 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Dec 2011IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 01-2100Z Solar activity was low. The largest event was a C3
flare from Region 1356 (N17W76) at 30/2232Z. Two coronal mass
ejections (CMEs) were observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery at 30/2112Z.
The events appear to originate from filament eruptions. The first
off the east limb beginning at 30/1922Z and the second near the west
limb beginning at 30/2046Z in SDO/AIA 171 imagery. We are currently
waiting on model runs to determine the possibility of a glancing
blow from these events.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day 1 (02 December)
with M-class flare probabilities increasing to a chance for days
2-3 (03-04 December).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with active to minor
storm periods observed at high latitudes.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue to be quiet to unsettled. There is still a
possibility for activity from a southern polar extent coronal hole
high speed stream (CH HSS).
III. Event Probabilities 02 Dec to 04 Dec
| Class M | 20% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Dec 155 Predicted 02 Dec-04 Dec 145/140/140 90 Day Mean 01 Dec 142
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Nov 009/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Dec 008/009 Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Dec-04 Dec 007/008-007/008-006/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Dec to 04 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 08% | 08% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 02% | 02% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 16% | 13% |
| Major-severe storm | 08% | 11% | 07% |
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