Viewing archive of Thursday, 3 November 2011

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Nov 03 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 307 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Nov 2011

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z

Solar activity was high. Region 1339 (N18E57) produced an X1/2B flare at 03/2027Z. In addition, the Region produced two M-class events during the past 24 hours, an M4 at 02/2201Z and an M2 at 03/1111Z. This group has rotated more fully into view as a large, E-type sunspot region with an apparent beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration. Current estimate of the area is around 1400 millionths. Region 1338 (S14E40) is also noteworthy as it has an area of about 375 millionths in a beta-gamma magnetic configuration. However, it has only managed to produce a C-class event. The remainder of the groups on the disk were quiet and stable.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be mostly moderate but there is a chance for additional major flare activity. The primary source of the elevated activity is expected to be Region 1339. There may also be a contribution to the M-flare activity from Region 1338.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. Nonetheless a magnetic crochet was clearly observed in the dayside magnetometer data in association with the X1.9 flare.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled with a chance for active periods for the first day (04 November). There is also a slight chance for storm level activity on this day. The increase is expected as a result of a glancing blow from the CME that occurred on 31 October. Activity levels are expected to be quiet to unsettled for the second day (05 November) and quiet for the third day (06 November). Note that this forecast may need to be updated if an earthward directed CME is observed and associated with todays X-class event.
III. Event Probabilities 04 Nov to 06 Nov
Class M75%75%75%
Class X20%20%20%
Proton10%10%10%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       03 Nov 160
  Predicted   04 Nov-06 Nov  165/165/165
  90 Day Mean        03 Nov 126
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 02 Nov  007/011
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 03 Nov  005/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 04 Nov-06 Nov  015/015-008/010-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Nov to 06 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%20%10%
Minor storm15%05%05%
Major-severe storm10%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active50%25%10%
Minor storm20%10%05%
Major-severe storm15%05%01%

All times in UTC

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