Viewing archive of Sunday, 25 December 2011
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Dec 25 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 359 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Dec 2011IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. New Region 1387 (S22W28)
produced a M4/1N flare at 25/1816Z. This event was accompanied by
Type II (1019 km/s) and Type IV radio emissions. This region grew
rapidly, ending the period as a Dao type group with Beta magnetic
characteristics. Coronagraph imagery was not yet available to
determine the characteristics of the CME. Earlier in the period, a
filament eruption occurred near N21W15. Analysis of this event
using LASCO imagery indicated a speed near 400 km/s. Evaluation of
the geoeffective potential of both the flare and filament eruption
is ongoing.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate, with a chance for further M-class activity from Region
1387.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. An enhancement of the 10 MeV proton
flux at the ACE spacecraft was observed following the M4/1N flare
mentioned earlier.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mosly quiet on Days 1 and 2 (26-27 December).
Initial predictions are for the CME to arrive late on Day 3 (28
December), bringing unsettled to active levels with a slight chance
for minor storm conditions at high latitudes. The arrival estimate
will be refined as new data becomes available.
III. Event Probabilities 26 Dec to 28 Dec
| Class M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Dec 144 Predicted 26 Dec-28 Dec 150/155/155 90 Day Mean 25 Dec 144
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Dec 002/001 Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Dec 000/001 Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Dec-28 Dec 006/005-006/005-007/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Dec to 28 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 20% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 20% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 25% | 40% |
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