Viewing archive of Monday, 31 October 2011

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Oct 31 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 304 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Oct 2011

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate during the period. A new region that has not yet emerged around the east limb produced a pair of M1 flares at 31/1508Z and 31/1808Z. A CME associated with the first of the two events was visible in NASA SOHO LASCO C2 imagery as well as on STEREO A, but appears not be a Earth directed trajectory.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is forecast to moderate with M-class flares likely to reoccur over the next 3 days (1-3 November).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled during the period as waning CH HSS effects lingered.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is forecast to be mostly quiet for the next 3 days (1-3 November).
III. Event Probabilities 01 Nov to 03 Nov
Class M60%60%60%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       31 Oct 138
  Predicted   01 Nov-03 Nov  140/145/145
  90 Day Mean        31 Oct 124
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 30 Oct  004/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 31 Oct  007/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 01 Nov-03 Nov  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Nov to 03 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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