Viewing archive of Thursday, 6 October 2011

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Oct 06 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 279 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Oct 2011

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest flare of the period, a C1 event at 06/0912Z, was from an unnumbered region in the southeast quadrant. There are currently 9 numbered regions on the visible disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with a slight chance for M-class activity for the next three days (07 - 09 October).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at predominantly quiet levels for the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels for the next three days (07 - 09 October).
III. Event Probabilities 07 Oct to 09 Oct
Class M20%20%20%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       06 Oct 124
  Predicted   07 Oct-09 Oct  125/130/130
  90 Day Mean        06 Oct 113
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 05 Oct  012/020
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 06 Oct  005/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 07 Oct-09 Oct  008/010-005/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Oct to 09 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%05%05%
Minor storm05%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%15%15%
Minor storm10%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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