Viewing archive of Tuesday, 30 November 2010
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Nov 30 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 334 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Nov 2010IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z Solar activity was very low during the past 24 hours.
A CME from the NE quadrant was observed in SDO/AIA images at
approximately 30/1830 UTC. Further analysis is required to
determine if the CME will be geoeffective.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a chance for C-class activity from Region 1130 (N12W27).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet for days one and two (01-02 Dec) as the
effects from a coronal hole high-speed stream continue to subside.
Quiet to unsettled conditions with a slight chance for isolated
active periods are expected on day three (03 Dec) due to possible
effects from a CME associated with the disappearing filament
observed early on 29 November.
III. Event Probabilities 01 Dec to 03 Dec
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Nov 086 Predicted 01 Dec-03 Dec 086/088/090 90 Day Mean 30 Nov 082
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Nov 002/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Nov 003/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Dec-03 Dec 005/005-005/005-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Dec to 03 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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