Viewing archive of Wednesday, 1 December 2010
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Dec 01 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 335 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Dec 2010IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 01-2100Z Solar activity was low during the past 24 hours.
Region 1130 (N14W40) produced a C1 flare at 01/0622Z and appears to
be growing steadily.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. There is a chance for additional C-class activity due
to the growth of Region 1130 and the return of old Regions 1124
(N14, L=190) and 1123 (S22, L=171).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet on day one (02 December). Quiet to
unsettled conditions with a chance for isolated active periods is
expected on days two and three (03-04 December) due to possible
effects from a CME associated with the disappearing filament
observed on 29 November. The CME observed near N15E40 on 30
November could also contribute to elevated activity on those days.
III. Event Probabilities 02 Dec to 04 Dec
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Dec 087 Predicted 02 Dec-04 Dec 088/090/090 90 Day Mean 01 Dec 082
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Nov 002/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Dec 002/003 Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Dec-04 Dec 005/005-010/010-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Dec to 04 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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