Viewing archive of Thursday, 4 November 2010
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Nov 04 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 308 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Nov 2010IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z Solar activity was low. New Region 1121 (S20E70) was
numbered today and produced a C1 flare at 04/0253Z. Region 1120
(N38E04) continued to decay.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
with a slight chance of moderate conditions for the next three days
(05-07 November).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. A period of
unsettled conditions was observed at mid-latitudes between
04/12-15Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet for the next three days (05-07
November).
III. Event Probabilities 05 Nov to 07 Nov
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Nov 079 Predicted 05 Nov-07 Nov 082/082/082 90 Day Mean 04 Nov 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Nov 002/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Nov 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Nov-07 Nov 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Nov to 07 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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