Viewing archive of Friday, 5 November 2010
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Nov 05 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 309 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Nov 2010IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z Solar activity was at moderate Levels. Region 1121
(S18E58) produced two M-class flares. An M1/Sf event occurred at
04/2358Z, and a long duration M1 event occurred at 05/1329Z. Region
1121 was classified as a Cro spot group with a beta magnetic
classification. However, limb proximity prevented a detailed
analysis of the region. Region 1120 (N38W09) continued to show
decreases in both areal coverage and sunspot count.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. M-class events remain likely.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly quiet levels for days one and two
(06-07 November). Quiet to unsettled levels, with isolated active
levels at high latitudes, are expected on day three (08 November).
III. Event Probabilities 06 Nov to 08 Nov
| Class M | 70% | 70% | 70% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Nov 083 Predicted 06 Nov-08 Nov 084/085/086 90 Day Mean 05 Nov 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Nov 002/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Nov 004/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Nov-08 Nov 005/005-005/005-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Nov to 08 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 08% | 01% |
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