Viewing archive of Friday, 8 October 2010
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Oct 08 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 281 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Oct 2010IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z Solar activity was very low. A few B-class events were
observed originating on the east limb near S24 in the vicinity of
old returning Region 1106 (S22, L-217).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain
at very low levels for the next three days (09 - 11 October).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at mostly quiet levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet for days one and two (09 - 10 October).
By day three (11 October), geomagnetic activity is expected to
increase to quiet to unsettled levels, with isolated active periods
at high latitudes. The forecasted increase in activity is due to a
geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream coupled with a possible
glancing blow from the 06 October full-halo CME.
III. Event Probabilities 09 Oct to 11 Oct
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Oct 075 Predicted 09 Oct-11 Oct 076/078/078 90 Day Mean 08 Oct 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Oct 002/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Oct 002/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Oct-11 Oct 005/005-005/005-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Oct to 11 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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