Viewing archive of Saturday, 11 September 2010
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Sep 11 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 254 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Sep 2010IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z Solar activity was very low. New Region 1106 (S18E64)
rotated onto the disk during the period and produced several B-class
events. A 20 degree filament eruption, centered near N25E25, was
observed on SDO/AIA 193 imagery at 11/0204Z. SOHO LASCO C3 imagery
indicated an associated partial-halo CME, with a majority of the CME
extending NE from the filament eruption. Further analysis, using
imagery from STEREO-A and STEREO-B COR2, indicated a portion of the
CMEs southern flank could possibly be Earth-directed.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a slight chance of C-class activity from emerging Region
1106.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic activity is
expected to be at predominately quiet to unsettled levels, with
isolated active periods, for days one and two (12 - 13 September)
due to a geoeffective, recurrent coronal hole high speed stream.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to return to mostly quiet
levels on day three (14 September).
III. Event Probabilities 12 Sep to 14 Sep
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Sep 078 Predicted 12 Sep-14 Sep 079/080/080 90 Day Mean 11 Sep 078
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Sep 002/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Sep 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Sep-14 Sep 008/008-008/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Sep to 14 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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